Predictions for 2026, The Year of the Fire Horse

Predicting anything is truly guessing, but it’s what we do at this time of year, as it’s a fun way to create debate and open discussion. In this case, the future is the future. The holidays are, after all, a time for rest and reflection. That’s a sure way to clear our minds and engage our imaginations.

I’ve seen a few New Year’s Eves in my life, so count me among those who love to share speculation on what’s ahead for the new year.

• Expect to see the government relax ownership rules, enabling further consolidation. That further consolidation will undoubtedly lead to further job elimination, but it’s necessary to enable the business to be able to retool and rebuild. The financial model in legacy media needs a reboot. The question worth pondering is will the way leadership reroutes resources will be in a way that will grow revenue or eliminate expenses. It’s not always one and the same.

• Job elimination will push good people to other parts of the media, entertainment and communication. Do not assume that this will be an overall negative for the media. This “change in geography” will lead to new and more outlets for content distribution. We’ve seen this in film and in the studio world. Great people find greater jobs.

• The government is a hindrance to consolidation in that broadcast outlets are governed by the Federal Communications Commission and the Federal Trade Commission. The difference with other businesses (airlines, for example) is that when you buy your competition, you can absorb them and take them out of business. Not so in Radio or TV. Expect the further deregulation of ownership rules to create a megalopolis of media businesses.

• Artificial Intelligence is a tool that’s being used more frequently than was originally believed to be the reality. AI can free up individuals to do other things in areas that are a part of their responsibility. It can help manage the cost of creativity and production while magnifying human voices and enlarging their reach. That’s a slippery slope, as AI can be another factor that leads to job elimination. Prediction: more individuals will learn how to use at least the most basic AI skills.

• It was comforting to hear one broadcast group guarantee that music and voice will be human and not AI. We expect to see a greater demand from the audience for authenticity and genuine content creation touched by humans. While AI rises in content creation, the automation of sales and media buying, and further allows the audience to absorb bytes of content on demand, because of its resonance, the Guaranteed Human promise will be duplicated across other platforms.

• NPR and PBS will find the support needed to continue to serve their audiences. The content is too good not to be championed by those in powerful positions, and most feel that there should be multiple views on most topics. The non-commercial broadcaster will not only survive but will experience growth in 2026.

• Talent has been acknowledged as being important to the attraction of an audience, but there has been little to support that supposition. Quite the contrary has been the case. Eliminating talent that, as seen in a recent major market, can be eliminated despite being number one in the ratings. That changes in 2026 as the connection between talent and revenue generation inspires media leaders to value personalities accordingly.

• Talent visibility will become even more important in the coming year. Radio studios now have cameras in them. Audiences stream audio with video more frequently. Talent will be asked to be in public more frequently as audiences long for that connection that makes a personality feel like a friend you know personally. Online and social media are a presence that will continue to grow in importance for talent as stations depend on the personality brand to build allegiance.

• The measurement of audiences will continue to expand to include multiple listening locations beyond traditional ratings. Expect to see Xperi DTS AutoStage explode as a research tool used for audience measurement and content research, streaming metrics from listening online or on apps, and the collection of first-party data coming together as part of sales. This could be the year that someone figures out how to accumulate and sell all impressions in a bundle.

• Midterm elections will generate strong revenue locally. Nationally, there will be a decrease from what’s been spent in Presidential years. Mainly because Congress and the Senate are driven regionally. We’ve not seen the type of revenue in the last three cycles that we saw during the Obama years, but this mid-term should prove to do well enoughto make the year strong in local ad sales.

The next 12 months have all the makings of a good year, but there’s nothing in radio that’s “easy” anymore. Broadcasters who expand delivery to more platforms, super serve local and regional businesses, cobble together a marketing plan to expose their station to new listeners, while reminding former listeners that they exist, are those who will look back at 2026 as a renaissance.

After all, 2026 is the Year of the Fire Horse in the Chinese calendar.