While the title doesn’t exactly replicate Zager & Evans’ “2525,” the just-completed Forecast 2025, presented by Radio Ink and RBR+TVBR, highlighted positives for the industry while magnifying many real-life concerns for the future.
Radio specifically has upside potential concerning growing its sales numbers. It faces many of the same challenges and threats that Television faces, but the ubiquity and mobility of audio, which is led by AM/FM, point to radio revenue continuing to strengthen versus competitive marketing options.
We heard discussions from analysts, brokers, investors, marketing experts, the heads of business divisions, and highly experienced leaders in media about what’s on the docket for broadcasters in the coming year. Leading AI Keynoter Matt Britton spoke and shared his insight as to generations, their habits, and what’s ahead for us as we face AI in our everyday lives. Sessions addressed the information economy which included concern about keeping the lights on in the newsroom.
The always popular Executive Session featuring leadership from some of the biggest companies in TV and Radio never disappoints. The panelists included Jack Abernathy, the CEO of Fox Television Stations, Liz Alesse, VP of ABC Audio & ABC News, Michael Hayes, President of Hearst Television, and Rob Babin, the EVP/Head of Radio, Cox Media Group. News Nation’s Lee Harris moderated the session. The conversation acknowledged the challenges on the horizon underscoring the evolution that media is undergoing. No one is waving the white flag of surrender. They are embracing change.
It’s tough to ignore the reality of audience erosion and the increased level of competition. Combine that with the need to reduce expenses to cover debt, and it’s easy to see the storm clouds on the horizon. The first wave of consolidation created obligations that required reorganization by some companies to reduce their debt. The pandemic nullified much of what had been shed before 2020. That means that there may be more reorganization needed before we see industry-wide financial improvement.
All signs point to media continuing to be of value to advertisers. The reach of the medium is extensive. Radio has a greater reach than other mass media platforms, including the DSPs. Radio is growing through the use of OTA, Apps, Smart Speakers, On-Demand, and Podcasting. According to Edison Research, In-Car listeners still spend the most time with radio. Radio isn’t what it once was, but it remains to be significant. It is the envy of other legacy media who have seen similar erosion as competitive options become more available.
Unfortunately, the devaluing of legacy media has placed unfair pressure on broadcasters, particularly those operating in the biggest markets, to realize annualized revenue growth. The same categories that help radio to grow compete with it. Digital is one. Podcasting is another. An abundance of entertainment and information options is yet another. No one medium is eroding radio. It’s all of them together and they’re watering down all sources.
What’s ahead for 2025 is going to be a paradigm shift like we haven’t seen since the mid-’90s when deregulation took hold. This correction is going to be deep. It will mean many changes.
It is going to be a scary year. But it will be survivable.
This shift will create new positions, different approaches, altered roles, and possibly greater consolidation of types of media. The opportunity to put more media categories under one owner will depend on the government and the FCC.
We’re already seeing the elimination of jobs. In some cases, it is hard to figure out as talent who have brand equity and heritage are being eliminated. Someone somewhere has made a financial decision. A roll of the dice to be able to show quarterly profits. That’s the job. The gamble is that the money you save is greater than the money you lose by not retaining those talent.
The factors in those decisions go well beyond the ratings. What is the endorsement revenue the talent in question generates? How available are they for appearances as well as in assisting sales secure clients? How disruptive are they internally?
A smart approach for a talent to take is to think in an entrepreneurial way – you are not an employee, but you’re a partner in the station’s success. Entrepreneurs eat what they kill. If you’re behaving like a partner, it should increase your perceived value.
Ratings are important, but being highly rated has more benefit in the major markets and somewhat in large markets. They become less valuable in medium and small markets where there is a need for more direct and local sales than national. The jury is out as to what revenue lift will come with greater AQH when Nielsen changes to 3 minutes from 5 minutes to get credit for a quarter-hour.
I suspect that savvy agencies will weigh down AQH numbers to benefit them cost-wise. That raises the question, at some point, as to how important a rating service is to your success.
The future brings greater widespread adoption of the European model where there are national brands and air talent syndicated/networked across multiple markets which could be national or regional. The decision then becomes do you have one local talent in each market that provides a community connection, enables the selling of endorsements and appearances, and serves as a liaison with promotions & marketing.
We’ve seen the words of one brutally honest CEO saying that there won’t be a job for everyone. Necessity warrants change. The technology exists today for air talent to be almost anywhere and deliver a show to a remote market. The same goes for Programming, Music Scheduling, Production & Imaging, Commercial Creation, Promotion & Marketing. The elimination of the need for a studio in your city of license has allowed for the expansion of roles and responsibilities.
Virtual communication has allowed Market Managers, Sales Managers, Programmers, and Technical Directors to oversee multiple markets with a minimal need for in-person leadership. Leadership will no longer need to be confined to one market. A Program Director can oversee multiple markets, much like a consultant or talent coach does, and use any of the audio/video communication platforms to interface with the content creators, promotions team, sales, technical, and management. Likewise for a Sales Manager. We consult companies that enable such remote operations by using the cloud. Content can be outsourced, including news, without losing quality or damaging credibility.
Looking ahead: the likelihood of more syndication, more voice-tracking, the use of AI, a welcoming of the era of citizen content creators, use of TikTok, social media, video in studio to accompany audio, total ubiquity using apps, gaming as a part of apps, and greater distribution.
In addition to the platforms we’re now using will be Geo Targeted Broadcasting. Once launched it should allow radio to better compete with digital. Quu will be further integrated into stations’ audio chains as an expansion of senses by adding sight to sound. Podcasting will bifurcate with a High-Level professional stream and a Low-Level amateur (hobbyist) stream.
Experiences are the currency most sought after by the post-pandemic consumer. Research shared at Forecast 2025 underscored that fact.
Radio has a future, but how bright depends on how willing we are to acknowledge that today’s status quo isn’t going to work there. There has to be change at a pace that’s greater and faster than evolution.
What we’ve known to be true in the past won’t be what we know is true in the future. Being able to adapt, embrace change, and understand that the paradigm is once again shifting, is what should lead to greater success.
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