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Here at McVay Media Rock we’ve been studying the storm brewing with younger listeners like many in and around our industry. Looking back in our Rock Division archives you’ll see a couple of articles along with other notes in the other divisions.
Now we have 2 recent developments in the industry and national headlines that shows the storm that’s a brewing here. Much like New Orleans before Katrina we all know Radio NEEDS TO act and QUICKLY!!!!! First let’s take a look at the facts on the younger demos and their listening declines then we’ll take a stab at what Radio can do to turn this trend around:
Development #1 - Young Adult Listening Levels
The recent news from Arbitron shows the decline in listening levels in the Persons Using Radio charts:
Age Range |
Fall 1998 AQH |
Spring 2006 AQH |
Fall 1998 TSL |
Spring 2006 TSL |
12-17 |
11.3 |
9.2 |
15 hours |
12:45 hours |
18-24 |
16.2 |
13.2 |
21.15 hours |
18 hours |
25-34 |
17.5 |
15 |
22.45 hours |
19:45 hours |
Things are falling fast here, in the last 8 years our impact on 12-34s has diminished around 20%. They now have a new entertainment and music options hitting them from all angels – the internet, I-Pods, MP3s, podcasts, downloadable tv/movies, myspace, youtube, satellite radio, and now streaming to their cell phones (which they ALL have or will have shortly).
We all know radio has ignored this whole generation. Our blinders have been on only for the 25-54 demo for the last 20 or more years and we’ve sent little programming at the under 30 set, let alone going after teens. While it may have been profitable in the short term we are now seeing more evidence on the radar that this storm is gaining in strength. Wall Street also sees it and this is a huge reason why they would rather invest in Google at inflated prices than bother with radio. Letting a whole younger generation forget radio for all the other entertainment options will doom our industry. We all know it and there is no denying it.
Development #2 U.S. Population hits 300 Million
The recent news that the population hit 300 Million has seismic impact on this generation when you dig down into the population trends, predictions and break down numbers. The journalistic joke/reality in many of the news write ups on this event speculated that the 300th Million person probably walked across the border.
(hit this link for an up to the minute U.S. Population Clock)
Taking a very close look at the U.S. Census projections for total population, ethnic populations, and age/sex numbers all the way to 2050 paints a very diverse picture. Attached is a spread sheet I built with the numbers that shows where we are in 2006 and where the Census folks feel we’ll be in 2010.
The biggest trend you can see here is that the U.S. is quickly becoming more ethnic with a rapid growth in the Hispanic Population. Yes you knew that, but drill down more and you will see that the biggest explosion is in the under 24 year old segment.
Right now here’s the picture in 2006
2006 Summary |
|
|
Total |
0 to 11 |
12 to 17 |
18 to 24 |
18 to 34 |
25 to 54 |
Average Ethnic pop % |
|
|
34.4% |
44.9% |
41.9% |
35.0% |
40.8% |
35.0% |
Average Hispanic pop% |
|
|
14.4% |
20.8% |
18.1% |
17.3% |
18.3% |
14.7% |
Now let’s move forward to 2010
2010 Summary |
|
|
Total |
0 to 11 |
12 to 17 |
18 to 24 |
18 to 34 |
25 to 54 |
Average Ethnic pop % |
|
|
37.5% |
46.7% |
44.0% |
37.2% |
41.8% |
37.2% |
Average Hispanic pop% |
|
|
16.0% |
21.9% |
20.0% |
18.4% |
18.7% |
16.0% |
Look at it carefully – in just 4 years in the average age cell we will see following facts in the Arbitron demo cells:
•The Ethnic population grows 9% and the percentage of Hispanics grows over 11% .
•Under 12 year olds will average 45% Ethnic and 21% of them Hispanic – over 1 in 5
•Teens will average 42% Ethnic and 18% Hispanic
•18-24 year olds will have a 37% average ethnic composition and over 18% Hispanic
•18-34s show similar numbers.
•25-54s will lag behind the ethnic and Hispanic average trends.
What happens if radio just let’s this generation walk away? I don’t want to be ‘doomsday Dave’ here, but letting this Generation just discard radio will put a clear end-date on our industry. In our next segment, we’ll take a look at what we can do to reverse the trends here.
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