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It’s become a tradition to review the progress of the formats under the rock umbrella in August and February after the Spring and Fall reports. Arbitron does a great job of giving us a national picture on their web site of all the formats with breakouts for demos, specific dayparts and even geographic regions for the top 97 continuously measured markets.
The Spring 06 data shows a downtrend for Rock and if you just glance at the report you would conclude that the Rock formats are in trouble.
Don’t worry, there are clear and obvious explanations for the down turn and it has nothing to do with the health of rock music or the acceptance of various formats within the genre.
Before we look at the data let’s look at 3 big factors that clearly affect the Spring 06 data:
1. Howard is Gone – In a world where the trades report Howard’s every move I’m surprised that no one reported the data here with a footnote that this was our first national report without Howard on terrestrial radio. This is a huge factor for Rock radio as he was on nearly 30 rock outlets and almost all of them were in the top 97 markets. There is still a list on one of his fan’s websites.
Not only did numbers dip in mornings when Howard left we also had a number of big market outlets dump out of the rock format all together. Suddenly KRock in New York, WYSP in Philly left the rock fold.
2. New Sample procedures in 18-34s: This was the first book for Arbitron to implement a number of new procedures to try and improve 18-24 and 25-34 Male sample returns. You can read a full summary here.
The increased compensation, phone reminders, and invite letters. Obviously if 18-34 male sample improved we’d have to see more reliability in the demo that many rock outlets target. But, look at the ‘fine print’ here – many of the sample procedures were phased in and did not impact the Spring 06 report except in select (problematic) markets.
3. Sample Return: It fell again by 4% and is very close to dipping below 30% in the Spring 05 to Spring 06 comparison – (http://www.onlinepressroom.net/arbitron/). What is even more disturbing here is what they call the Consent Rate (those who agree to accepting a diary) this is declining much faster than the Return rate (those who return a diary after accepting – which is actually growing). Their ‘policy’ does not include cell phones till 2007 or 2008 so you can see the problem here – they are having a harder time reaching the sample.
In the end I have to conclude that the Arbitron sample problems have improved a tiny tiny bit in getting a stronger return from the people that agree to a diary (Return Rate). It’s still a decaying system that does hamper younger formatted stations in general and has an even stronger impact on all of rock radio. We are seeing more and more weighting in older male demos cells every year. What was once an 18-24 male problem in the 80s became a 18-34 male issue in the 90s and has now spread to nearly the whole 18-44 male demo and we are now seeing problems in 18-24 females. This hurts Rock radio, but the impact is the same as it always is for the format.
The real issue here is HOWARD. Look at the combined 12 plus morning shares for Alternative and Rock stations nationwide and compare it to the other dayparts:
Start the day off with a downtrend and you can pretty much insure that the rest of the dayparts will struggle to gain any momentum. Here we start with the biggest loss of any daypart. Remember that this is ALL Alternative and Rock stations, not just Howard’s land – no doubt the impact at Howard’s stations was huge. We also have fewer stations in the Spring 06 report (K Rock and N.Y. and YSP in Philly – most notably) as a direct result of Howard leaving.
Aside from the on-going sample issues and the obvious loss of audience due to Howard nationwide ROCK formats are in very good shape musically:
1. Active Rock
Musically Active Rock stations have found a very happy era balance and we have nearly a year of strong new music releases. It’s mix of brand new bands, sophomore and junior success stories, and some vets with solid releases. Look at the highlights from the past year:
Fairly New Bands:
i. Theory of A Deadman
ii. Hinder
iii. AFI
iv. Wolfmother
v. Stone Sour
vi. 3 Days Grace
vii. Black Stone Cherry
viii. Breaking Benjamin
Junior Bands with 3 or more CDs Behind them
i. Shinedown
ii. Papa Roach
iii. Evanescence
Vets
i. Red Hot Chili Peppers
ii. Pearl Jam
iii. Tool
iv. Nickelback
v. Audioslave
vi. Buckcherry
vii. Godsmack
viii. Korn
ix. Foo Fighters
x. 9 Inch Nails
And I’m sure I forgot a few that could have made this list. Nearly all of these releases have hit the top 40 in sales or are expected to over the last 18 months and many have hit top 10.
Rock has returned some of it’s hipness that waned over the last 5-6 years. The spread of rap and hip-hop music through the 15-28 audience over that period clearly handicapped most newer rock outlets. Music is always evolving and going through popularity cycles and rap/hip-hop has clearly been on the downtrend with reports in June of a 15% decline in the genre for sales. Rap took on aura in the 90s as the new rebellion music – nothing upsets dad and mom more than a thumping set of Fosgates crankin’ some ganskta lyrics. Well now we have Rap Stars working with country singers, pop folks, and even rockers. Their problems are often which Bentley to drive and now they have lost some of that authentic street feel that drove the teens and 20 somethings to the music.
2. Alternative
The format still shares a lot with Active Rock and many of the artists listed there are also hot here. They have also embraced the EMO Rock movement with new rock bands working with songs that have emotional laced lyrics and are enjoying a run especially with 15-22 year olds. This category is starting to explode and is right up Alternative’s alley.
3. Classic Rock and AOR stations
As the Jack/Bob/Dave adult hit stations have grown they have taken a little share in the early months of their launches, but the Classic Rock and AOR audience doesn’t stay long. What has happened for the good here is the expanding of eras and a bit deeper play lists for Classic Rock stations to combat the adult hit hype. This move has freshened the format and coupled with a strong morning show, active promotion, good community involvement and entertaining imaging. We’ve even seen new stations that offer over 4 decades of music reach from the late 60s to the 90s for the library and even work with a few of the veteran releases noted above. It’s almost like the AOR stations of the 80s in the music mix and suddenly it sounds fresh again.
We still have challenges in repairing mornings in a number of markets and marketing stations with less budget every year and an ever increasing media landscape. These are banner years for rock with a healthy to hot music spectrum and plenty of heritage stations in many markets, but the blip caused by Howard’s exit and the continuing Arbitron sample problems in the target demos cloud the report card here.
Fall is also a challenge as Sports proves to be a distraction in Rock. We shouldn’t expect to see a big recovery in the February 07 report. With a big NFL season (now with extra hype as 3 nets and ESPN carry the games), College Football and an exciting World Series run on the way the 18-49 Male target will have lots to follow and distract it from music and radio. Expect to see things improve as we move to Spring 07 as the music picture continues to shine and we are able to rebuild some morning shows.
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