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In the May 25th (2006) issue USA Today ran one of their often parodied Snapshot graphs for a survey on Tuning Out Radio Commercials. The research was done by American Media Services using a phone survey or 1,004 adults done from April 13-15, 2006.
The question – How long adults listen to a commercial on the radio before changing the station?
The Results:
While it’s not a shocker the reality, according to this study, is a loss of 90% of the adult audience in 2 minutes or less of commercials. Over half won’t sit through a minute. With the average commercial break running 3-4 minutes and most stations running from 10-12 minutes an hour we have at least 2 and usually 3 opportunities in every hour to lose 90% of the audience if this study is accurate.
We really don’t know how accurate the study is. The sample is adequate in research terms to a 97% confidence level, but how biased is the question? It’s a simple question, but does it reflect actual behavior? It’s likely that in a phone based survey that a question like this will bring an exaggerated response. We know that most of the audience feels that commercials are an interruption and when asked over the phone, away from their listening environment they will probably claim that they are quicker on the trigger finger than they actually are. They are also answering the question, not actually listening to a commercial and being asked ‘would they tune out?’ A commercial for an item you are interested in or a very entertaining spot would likely show less tune out than we see here where the respondents are all probably imaging the worst commercial in your inventory.
The current Arbitron diary methodology, where we have the most data, is very misleading on measuring listening habits this precisely. Very few, if any, of the diaries are filled out in real time. Most are filled out at the end of the day or week and measure recalled behavior. We really don’t know exactly when they tuned in or tuned out. Obviously the People Meter will give us a more accurate figure and in the markets where the new system has been tried we do see more cume and less TSL than we see in diaries.
Under the diary system programmers often designed clocks to hype the perceived TSL with longer music sweeps. The ½ hour marathon, 10 or 20 in a row, and even 60-90 minute sweeps were pretty much standard in every format for the last 15-20 years as a prime technique to building more TSL. With recall data collection in the diary it worked pretty well and if you imaged enough on the longer sweeps and consistently delivered on the promise many stations/formats showed TSL gains.
Now we are faced with many new realities that challenge the longer music sweep technique:
• 6+ minute stop sets won’t work: One of our tricks to building longer music sweeps was ganging up all the spots in 2 breaks so many hours you had 5-6 minute stop sets. The logic here was any stop set is a danger and we might as well accept the big loss, but only take the chance 2 times an hour. The technique falls apart as both the audience and the advertisers rebelled. The advertisers began to downgrade radio’s effectiveness and the audience was starting to complain rather loudly. Clear Channel’s Less Is More campaign wisely avoided longer stop sets. 3 stop sets an hour is the New Norm.
• Sales still needs 10+ minutes an hour to sell: Cutting the spot load to less than 10 minutes an hour is not an affordable business model. Programmers and the audience can complain, but cutting back any more on a long range plan is just not an option. Can you imagine a world with 20% less in revenue while you still have the expenses you have now? Neither can Wall Street or the private owners.
• Even at 3 stop sets we still risk losing considerable audience. With two 3 min clusters and one 4 min cluster (for a total of 10 minutes an hour) we are still looking at losing 90% of the audience according to the results of the American Media Services/USA Today research. We really haven’t made much of a gain here over having longer stop sets and we are taking the chance 3 times every hour.
• Do we give up on sweeps all together? We could go to just 2 min stop sets and run 5 of them an hour. We would end up with 2-3 song sets and probably have to find new formatics for the personalities. The old fashion backsell, liner, billboard before every stop set would only force us into more talk and less music. A short while back some stations were imaging around a promise of ‘you’re never more that 2 minutes away from the music.’ To do that they went to 5 stop set an hour and 2-3 song sets. This approach works well in formats that have songs under 3.5 minutes – in rock it will be tough to deal with 7-9 minute records that you almost have to play.
• Is all the imaging and more music wars a thing of the past? Considering we are competing with I Pods, streaming only outlets, and satellite all with no spots (or very little) perhaps this is a war we can’t win. Our assets may lie more in our long stand brands, our personalities and our local/community ties. Would we be a lot better off developing and imaging more around this and not wasting time on a battle we can’t win anymore?
• Offering new tie in options for clients. More and more on other media clients are moving away from a reliance on the formal ‘commercial.’ Look at the Coke or Ford tie in to American Idol where the product is placed throughout the show, special segments with the contestants are done interacting with the product and outside promotions are placed. In radio we’ve done a little of this with station concert tie ins, feature sponsorships and on-air giveaways for products/prizes. Are there more ways to integrate these placement style marketing techniques into radio without presenting as much of a distraction as we get from a group of 30-60 second commercials?
All of these concerns need to be factored in to our programming strategies and tactics as we face more competition from new media and also a new measurement system. It’s time for some new rules and we’ll need to experiment, research and monitor our efforts with care If this issue isn’t on your radar when it comes to your programming strategy and tactics it should be. The reality of ratings based less on recall and more on real behavior monitoring, and the increase in new media competition is not going to fade away, it’s a reality we all will have to face.
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