The question is “Where is it all Heading?”

One year is winding down and another is soon to begin. Every year we pause to reflect on previous years and focus on the next year. For “kicks and giggles” I had my assistant pull the December Monthly Memo for each of the last 15-years. It was interesting to read the predictions that I made and the cautions I issued to our readers and clients. None of my predictions were earth shattering, so perhaps the reason I was mostly right is that I remained conservative in what I predicted.

For the most part, I was correct in my observations. I expected satellite to be bigger than it’s become and I changed my tune about News/Talk on FM. It’s not widespread yet, but I am now ready to accept that every market should (and will) have one. I do not believe music radio will go away, but I do believe that stations will either be 100% Music without Personality, or they’ll be Personality driven with “some music.”

There are always naysayers and doomsday predictors in every industry. Our business is no different. I’ve been reading of the demise of radio since I got into the business. AM was still king in 1971 when I took my first full-time radio job. FM was on the horizon and scared many in the business. Those among us who were smart understood that FM was going to grow not only radio listening levels, but that the stereo band would enable us to increase revenue.
I’ve seen and heard the threatening knock on our doors from the CB Radio, Eight-Track Players, Cassette Players, the Mini Disk, Audio Books, Movie Rentals, Cable TV, Direct TV, MTV, Video Games, CD’s, DVD’s, Satellite Radio, the Internet, Cellular Connectivity, HDTV, the MP3 Player, the iPod, the iPhone, Music Downloads, Podcasts, HD Radio and the latest which is Internet Telephone. These products, services and technologies are all competitors of ours.

All of these modern-day threats can help us grow our product lines. We must embrace these new technologies and make them a part of what we do. I remember talking to Bob Pittman (former VP/Programming at MTV and the original programming genius behind the music channel) when they first launched. Bob predicted that MTV wouldn’t hurt radio, but rather it would help it by exposing artists and increasing awareness of contemporary music. He was right. Stop looking at the increase of media as competition and instead view these various entities as portals for content.

We must start viewing radio as a delivery system. We’re not the “part-of-your-life” product that we once were. Yes, there are radio stations that are still imbedded in the local community, and they should be. However, altering your view to that of “delivering programming”, will enable you to focus on the currency that is programming.

It is my prediction that network programming, syndication, voice tracking and the “virtual studio” will become more important over the next 3 – 5 years. Given the costs of radio, especially in smaller markets, owners & operators will begin to look to continue to trim expense from their local programming budget. They’ll have to further eliminate costs to make their budgets come in at an acceptable level.

Many small and medium market broadcasters will be operating radio stations that are akin to the local weekly newspaper. There’s nothing wrong with that, except that using that model means that you must trim content costs. It will mean that your sales department will have to focus on selling results instead of ratings and we’ll all have to multitask in order to help control costs. Side-note; the worth of experience and knowledge is always at a premium. I’m not worried about broadcasters eliminating consultants. We’ll continue to have a role in the industry, although we may become even more vertically integrated. Consultants will be “Content Advisors” more so than “Radio Programmers.”

There was a time when all Television was local. The more quality network programming that became available, the more TV aired national shows instead of local shows. The ratings soared. The TV audiences grew and the value of the TV stations increased. Of course, TV has as much competition as radio today. They’re competing with 400 channels and technology that allowed their viewers to zip by commercials. Regardless, TV is the model. The networks and syndicators will flourish in the future. Stations will still have a community presence with a live morning show, or may it will be afternoon drive that’s live, and they’ll stay promotionally active. Syndication and Network delivered shows have already proven that one need not be local, or even live, to have rating success.

According to Arbitron, we’ve lost only about 2% of all radio listening in the last five (5) years. It is erroneous to state that terrestrial radio is in trouble, and we must stop allowing the press and the advertising agencies to further that lie. We can no longer “phone it in”, though. We must present a product that is better than what we now present. We’re not just competing with the terrestrial station across the street. Our real & true competition is for the listener’s time and attention.